Tag Archives: china

At the ‘Strategic Investment Conference 2016’ recently held in Dallas, geopolitical forecaster and strategist George Friedman said: ‘China is like Japan in 1989′. There are indeed many similarities between China today and Japan in the late 80’s, before Nippon went bust: a reliance on investment- and export-led growth; big current account surpluses; a real estate bubble (that led to highly indebted …

63 year old Xi Jinping Is the most powerful man in China. He is the General Secretary of the Communist Party, the Chairman of Chinas Central Military Commission and the President of the People’s Republic of China. But the ‘Paramount Leader’ has another quality that is not yet really acknowledged by the public. Xi Jinping plays his role as a …

Trump is more dangerous than terrorism Each month, The Economist Intelligence Unit publishes a report with top-events that could destabilize the global economy. The just released ‘April 2016’-report marks for the first time ever a potential election of an US- presidential candidate as a top global risk. Here is the complete list in order of impact and probability: China experiences …

This week, China reported its largest monthly drop in exported goods since May 2009. China’s ‘February-2016-trade performance’ was far worse than economists had expected, with exports falling 25.4% reflecting the current downturn in global demand for chinese products. Although this figure looks pretty bad, one has to consider the week-long Chinese new year holidays – with factories closed for seven …

The six dangerous hotspots of the chinese economy right now 1. Overcapacity In basically each industrial sector, the chinese factories have currently much bigger production-facilities (and number of employees) than really needed. In the steel-sector for instance, the overcapacity is about 350 million tons/year sending steel prices on the market down the tube. But China has not followed through on …

Chinese companies realized a record of acquisitions abroad this year. In just the first 2 month of 2016, the chinese bought foreign companies in value of over 80 billion USD thereby clearly topping last year’s record figures. What’s behind this buying spree? For once, the declining opportunities at home have spurred chinese investors to look abroad. Big real estate purchases, …

“It’s official! Now China is the new number 1 global economic power!” I have to admit, I was puzzled after reading that headline on a serious financial website one morning at end of last year. I simply couldn’t believe it. So I checked the data provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and it seems to be clear: Chinas gross …

Summer 1929 – New York In the ‘Roaring Twenties’ – a period of powerful economic growth and profound cultural change from 1920 to 1929 – the national wealth in the US doubled. The Dow Jones rocketed, thereby creating many new millionaires and stock trading became America’s favorite pastime as investors could make a quick killing. Many invested their life savings …

In previous chapters, I raised a lot of questions about China, now we try to find the answers. Is a stock market crash in China likely? Yes, almost for sure. Is a global economic crises likely? Yes, and the risk is rising. I have never been to mainland China, but several times in Hong Kong before the handover and after. …

China’s currency, the Yuan, got an upgrade by the IMF to a status of global reserve currency. Other ‘Reserve-Club’-members are the US-Dollar, Euro, Pound and Yen. The last change was made in 2000, when the Euro replaced the German Mark and the French Franc. One reason behind this IMF decision is obvious: China’s economic development. Today, the country accounts for …